The energy landscape is shifting, and a historic milestone has been reached! According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), US utility-scale solar capacity has finally overtaken wind, marking a significant first in the renewable energy sector.
Solar's Dominance:
Solar energy is shining brighter than ever, leading the way in new capacity additions for 26 consecutive months. This consistent growth has resulted in a remarkable achievement: solar capacity surpassing wind capacity for the very first time. The SUN DAY Campaign's analysis of FERC data reveals a 72% contribution of solar to US electrical generating capacity in the first 10 months of 2025. And the future looks even brighter, with FERC predicting an additional 90 gigawatts (GW) of solar power over the next three years, potentially surpassing nuclear and coal.
October's Solar Boom:
In October alone, solar energy's rise was evident. FERC's 'Energy Infrastructure Update' report highlights that 66 solar units, totaling 1,082 megawatts (MW), were brought online, making up a substantial 59.8% of the month's new generating capacity. This expansion is in stark contrast to the 727 MW added by natural gas and 1 MW from oil.
A Year of Solar Growth:
Looking at the bigger picture, the utility-scale solar units added in the first 10 months of 2025 amount to 22,457 MW, a slight dip from the previous year's 22,618 MW. Despite this minor setback, solar still accounted for a whopping 72.0% of all new capacity during this period. This consistent growth has solidified solar's position as the top dog in new generating capacity for 26 months straight, from September 2023 to October 2025. In this time, utility-scale solar capacity skyrocketed from 91.82 GW to 160.56 GW, leaving other energy sources in the dust. For context, wind managed an expansion of 12.39 GW, while natural gas only added 6.55 GW.
Solar Surpasses Wind:
As a direct consequence of this growth, solar has now officially overtaken wind in installed generating capacity for utility-scale projects. Solar's installed capacity stands at 160.56 GW, just edging out wind's 160.09 GW.
Wind vs. Natural Gas:
But here's where it gets interesting. While solar takes the lead, wind capacity additions are giving natural gas a run for its money. From January to October, wind power contributed 4,746 MW of capacity additions, a 55% increase year-over-year, surpassing natural gas's 3,896 MW. Wind now accounts for 15.2% of all new capacity added in 2025 so far.
Renewables Take the Lead:
When we zoom out to the year-to-date (YTD) numbers, the dominance of renewables becomes even more apparent. Wind and solar, along with a small contribution from hydropower and biomass, make up a staggering 87.2% of all new generating capacity. Natural gas, on the other hand, lags behind with just 12.4%.
The Big Picture:
Wind and solar's combined might is impressive, accounting for 23.79% of the US's total installed utility-scale generating capacity. But wait, there's more! Small-scale solar systems, like rooftop panels, contribute an additional 25% of US solar capacity, which is not even included in FERC's data. If we factor this in, renewables' share of the US total would be even higher.
The Rise of Renewables:
When we include hydropower, biomass, and geothermal, renewables already account for 32.72% of total US utility-scale generating capacity. And if we bring small-scale solar into the mix, renewables surpass the one-third mark of total US generating capacity.
FERC's Three-Year Forecast:
Looking ahead, FERC's three-year forecast predicts a massive expansion of solar capacity. They estimate net 'high probability' additions of 89,720 MW for solar, dwarfing the 19,660 MW forecast for wind, the second-fastest-growing resource. Hydro, geothermal, and biomass are also expected to grow, while natural gas, nuclear, coal, and oil face capacity reductions.
The Trump Administration's Legacy:
By mid-fall 2028, if FERC's forecast holds, utility-scale solar will make up 17.3% of installed US generating capacity, second only to natural gas. The combined capacity of all utility-scale renewable energy sources will surpass 38%. And if small-scale solar maintains its current share, renewables could account for over 41% of the total, while natural gas drops to around 38%.
The Potential for Renewables:
But the story doesn't end there. FERC suggests that the actual growth in utility-scale solar could be even higher, reaching up to 232,487 MW in three years. Wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass are also expected to see significant growth. These numbers challenge the status quo and raise questions about the future of energy.
The Future of Energy:
Ken Bossong, from the SUN DAY Campaign, highlights the resilience of renewable energy sources despite policy setbacks. He states, '...the economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy sources continue to drive their dramatic growth.' This prompts us to consider: are we witnessing a permanent shift in the energy landscape? Will renewables continue to outpace traditional sources? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
