The year 2026 is shaping up to be a scorcher, with a strong possibility of breaking the record for the hottest year ever recorded. The early signs are already there, with the UK experiencing its hottest May on record and France not far behind. The US has also been enduring stretches of unbearable early-year heat, leaving many to wonder if 2026 will surpass the record set in 2024. Climate scientist James Hansen is among those predicting a new record, citing the impending El Niño and the persistent heat waves as key factors. The 2024 record was already a warm one, with global temperatures 2.32 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1991-2020 average, and 2026 is likely to be in the running for all 12 months. While the exact global average for 2026 remains to be seen, the planet has already had its fifth-warmest start to any year in 177 years of record-keeping. The inclusion of data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, in this article is a reminder of the interconnectedness of climate data and financial markets. As we await the May climate report from NOAA, the signs are pointing towards a potentially record-breaking year. The question remains: will 2026 be the year we finally break the heat record, or will it be a close call? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the planet is getting warmer, and the consequences of this are far-reaching and complex.
